Q1 2017 Investment Commentary Part II: Forecasting the Future

Let’s start with a debatable, but widely held fundamental concept of investing: the best predictor of future returns for stocks is the current valuation.  This is generally true of a single stock, a sector, or an entire country’s stock market.  Academics and practitioners debate whether important factors like gross profitability, price momentum, earnings momentum, yield, [...]

The Harsh Realities of Individual Bond Investing

Spend any time working in the kitchen of a restaurant and you will think of restaurants very differently going forward.  Following a short experience in a restaurant kitchen during college, I’ve never once sent a meal back for being undercooked, overcooked, or even the entirely wrong order.  Use your imagination and we can just leave [...]

Guaranteed Income and No Risk of Principal – Too Good to be True?

It is difficult to go more than a week without seeing or hearing advertisements for an investment that guarantees zero risk of principal loss, promises an attractive return (5-10% per year), and ensurers lifetime income that never expires.  Admittedly, these promises can sound very attractive on the surface, especially for risk averse investors.  But are they too [...]

Q4 2016 Investment Commentary: Planning vs. Prognosticating

Last Friday here in Atlanta, local businesses closed, restaurants shut their doors by late afternoon, school activities were cancelled, and the Atlanta metro region went under a State of Emergency in anticipation of a debilitating storm.  Meteorologists unanimously predicted 2-5 inches of snowfall later that evening – an obviously dire amount of snowfall by southern [...]

Luck and Skill in Baseball and Investing

The following is our quarterly investment letter that was recently sent to clients. 75 years ago this month, a thrilling World Series concluded what many baseball historians decidedly describe as the best baseball season ever.  That season is notably remembered for two historic accomplishments: Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak and Ted Williams finishing the season with [...]

Asset Location: Organize Your Portfolio Like Your Kitchen

My family’s kitchen will not be profiled on HGTV as a model of organization.  We face the practical limitations of 25-year old builder-grade cabinets and constrained space.  We also face the reality confronted by many parents of young children.  That is, the focus of children emptying a clean dishwasher is on getting it done quickly [...]

Investing in Election Cylces

"It is a habit of mankind to entrust to careless hope what they long for, and to use sovereign reason to thrust aside what they do not fancy.” — Thucydides Immediately following the British vote to exit from the European Union (“Brexit”), we sent an email to you and other clients explaining the implications.  A [...]

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Simple and Effective Investing

“It might be the simplest play in all of sports, and the most effective.  Give the ball to Michael Jordan, and everyone else get out of the way.” These two sentences began an Associated Press article on May 28, 1989.  The day prior, the Chicago Bulls had the ball in the closing seconds of a [...]

Parallels of Sports Betting and Investing

The most interesting research project I worked on in graduate school was a study of statistical inefficiencies in sports gambling markets.  Our small team of students hypothesized on all kinds of possible anomalies in sports.  Was the over/under line inefficient when high scoring NBA or NFL teams were competing?  Were teams coming off a bye-week [...]

The Challenge of Individual Stocks

On a recent visit to the Museum of Modern Art (MoMA), I surprisingly stumbled upon an exhibit featuring classic video games such as Tetris, Asteroids, and Pac-Man.  The games were displayed on active video screens with an adjacent explanation of the creativeness or design elegance for why they were each chosen. In their heyday, these [...]