CAPE’s Are Better Than Crystal Balls

You would never drive your car with your sight glued to the rear view mirror.  You would likely wreck or find yourself lost.  Yet many investors are guilty of that very thing.  They select stocks, mutual funds and other investments based on past performance, despite the ever-present admonition in financial literature that “past performance is [...]

Recessions. Markets. Risk.

Investment offices teem with daily data releases and economic news bites. Afternoon market round-ups attribute the day’s movements to whatever data points best fit the narrative of the day or week. Investors crave the narrative, eagerly awaiting the next market moving release. Lately financial news has inundated us with talk of global slowdowns, trade wars, [...]

Snowfall in Finland Is Above Average This Winter So Why Do The Knicks Keep Losing

You may have heard the news.  Between October 1st and December 31st, the stock market delivered its worst quarter since 2008 to culminate its worst year since 2008.  It was the stock market's worst December since 1931.  What caused the stock market selloff?   As we say often, there is rarely ever a definitive answer [...]