Control the Controllables

Paul Azinger is described by many as the best Ryder Cup captain ever.  In 2008, he led what was arguably the least accomplished, least experienced, and least talented team of American golfers in the history of the Ryder Cup event – a 12-person team, missing the injured Tiger Woods and lacking a single player with [...]

Outcomes and Probabilities

German, Brazilian, English, Argentine, and Spanish football fans, take heart.  Football (or in American vernacular - soccer) is quantifiably the least predictable major sport.  In no other sport is luck such a critical determinant of the outcome.  So you have that going for you the next time you sit down with a Frenchman to discuss [...]

Q1 2017 Investment Commentary Part II: Forecasting the Future

Let’s start with a debatable, but widely held fundamental concept of investing: the best predictor of future returns for stocks is the current valuation.  This is generally true of a single stock, a sector, or an entire country’s stock market.  Academics and practitioners debate whether important factors like gross profitability, price momentum, earnings momentum, yield, [...]