CAPE’s Are Better Than Crystal Balls

You would never drive your car with your sight glued to the rear view mirror.  You would likely wreck or find yourself lost.  Yet many investors are guilty of that very thing.  They select stocks, mutual funds and other investments based on past performance, despite the ever-present admonition in financial literature that “past performance is [...]

Guaranteed Income and No Risk of Principal – Too Good to be True?

It is difficult to go more than a week without seeing or hearing advertisements for an investment that guarantees zero risk of principal loss, promises an attractive return (5-10% per year), and insurers lifetime income that never expires.  Admittedly, these promises can sound very attractive on the surface, especially for risk averse investors.  But are [...]

Blame Harry

The following post is an edited and abbreviated version of the quarterly investment commentary that we recently sent to RPG clients. A Jewish boy from Chicago is to blame.  Harry Markowitz – a name that anyone who has ever taken a finance course might recognize - grew up in Chicago during the Great Depression.  He [...]

Why I Bonds May Be the Most Underappreciated Savings Vehicle

Related posts on Investing in an Inflationary Environment: Deeper Dive into the Mechanics of Series I Bonds What are TIPS and how do they work? Sell Bonds in Inflationary Environments? Your end of year to-do list is already overflowing.  You have to prepare and send holiday cards, put up lights, get the holiday-themed lawn ornaments [...]

Recessions. Markets. Risk.

Investment offices teem with daily data releases and economic news bites. Afternoon market round-ups attribute the day’s movements to whatever data points best fit the narrative of the day or week. Investors crave the narrative, eagerly awaiting the next market moving release. Lately financial news has inundated us with talk of global slowdowns, trade wars, [...]

Does Your Employer Penalize Aggressive Saving? Odds Are, Yes.

Hats off if you’re maximizing your 401k deferrals and reaching the federal employee contribution limit each calendar year: $19,000 in 2019 if you’re age 49 or younger or $25,000 in 2019 if you’re age 50 or over. Note: these limits have increased to $19,500 and $26,000 respectively for the tax year 2021.  Additional congratulations if you’re [...]

Flu Vaccines and Small Sample Sizes

I got a flu shot in the fall of 1999.  It is a seemingly trivial detail of life that should be long-forgotten but was, instead, memorialized by what followed.  A few weeks after receiving this influenza vaccine, I suffered through the historic changing of the calendar from 1999 to 2000 with a debilitating flu.  That [...]

Snowfall in Finland Is Above Average This Winter So Why Do The Knicks Keep Losing

You may have heard the news.  Between October 1st and December 31st, the stock market delivered its worst quarter since 2008 to culminate its worst year since 2008.  It was the stock market's worst December since 1931.  What caused the stock market selloff?   As we say often, there is rarely ever a definitive answer [...]

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