There are an estimated 50 million Amazon Prime members in the United States which means that a household in this country is more likely to have an Amazon Prime membership than to have a dog. It actually seems to be more challenging to find a Gen X or Millennial family who does not use Amazon [...]
Most investors like the idea of waiting for a period of calm to invest. Our brains tell us it is better to wait until there is clarity and risks have subsided before investing. And our brains have good reason to work this way. For our ancestors, waiting until things calmed down was necessary for survival. [...]
The most interesting research project I worked on in graduate school was a study of statistical inefficiencies in sports gambling markets. My small team of fellow classmates hypothesized on all kinds of possible anomalies in sports. Was the over/under line inefficient when high scoring NBA or NFL teams were competing? Were teams coming off a [...]
On a recent visit to the Museum of Modern Art (MoMA), I surprisingly stumbled upon an exhibit featuring classic video games such as Tetris, Asteroids, and Pac-Man. The games were displayed on active video screens with an adjacent explanation of the creativeness or design elegance for why they were each chosen. In their heyday, these [...]
At various points in life, individuals begin to avoid roller coasters, back flips off the high dive, cartwheels, and full contact football. They take more frequent breaks in their weekly tennis game and aspire to completing a marathon rather than finish one in less than 3-hours. Instead of travelling to Spain to run with the [...]
Buckle up, America. Higher interest rates are coming. Forget that we have collectively observed this erroneous warning a dozen times or so over the past decade. We also had 13 Triple Crown attempts since Affirmed in 1978 and consider what happened recently to that lengthy streak of failed expectations. For the first time since June 2006, [...]
There is a refreshing simplicity to the golf game of a toddler. I appreciate this because my youngest son’s passion for golf is only superseded right now by that of chocolate chip cookies and his blanket. He spends long stretches every day hitting a foam golf ball around the yard and occasionally we visit the [...]
The following is an excerpt from the quarterly letter we recently sent to clients on the lure of investment prediction. Rock-paper-scissors ranks somewhere near the top of a list of universally known childhood games. The game separates itself from games of pure chance like coin flipping or the card game war in that participants can gain an [...]
Anyone who attended summer camp as a kid likely equates marshmallows with two things – a fundamental ingredient in making s’mores and the only ingredient needed for a game of chubby bunny. When a psychologist hears the word marshmallow, however, the first thought may not be of s’mores or chubby bunny. Instead, a psychologist likely [...]
The following is an excerpt from the quarterly letter we sent to clients. We are an overconfident species. 93% of us believe we are above average drivers, 86% of us believe we are better looking than the average person, and 80% of us think we’re smarter than average. We are convinced that we know more [...]
